Again, I got happily delayed in writing these up, so the Atlanta-Arizona game has already started (Cardinals with the early lead after the Cards pick off Ryan on Atlanta's first possession and then score on a Warner-to-Fitzgerald bomb). My quick picks for the wildcard games:

Cardinals-Falcons: The Cards were terrible down the stretch after having the privilege of lowering intensity after sealing the NFC West early. Meanwhile, the Falcons really had to play hard for their wildcard spot and only lost narrowly to the Panthers - otherwise they would've earned a #2 seed and a first-round bye.

I'm going for the "upset" here: even though I don't think Arizona's defence is going to put the brakes too often on Michael Turner, I think Kurt Warner has the playoffs experience and is going to show the leadership that will get them the win. There isn't much playoffs experience on either side, which I think makes the former two-time MVP a big factor. Their offence should, as always, manage enough points in this game: if they can keep Turner from breaking the game open while keeping the Phoenix crowd up, they'll be in good shape to get the win.

Pick: Arizona

Colts-Chargers: San Diego have shown in the past four weeks the type of form that got them to the AFC Championship Game last year and had everyone picking them to threaten once more this season. The fact that they've crawled home twice against the mediocre Chiefs probably balances their tough losses to start off the season against Carolina and the Broncos (the Ed Hochuli game). They really played big in destroying Denver and they really are looking good now. Just one more question: is LT really back? He needs to find it if the Chargers are going to go deeper.

There's no denying that the Colts haven't been particularly great either. Yes, they've won eight in a row to finish off the season. But they only just managed to squeeze out a number of their wins (I think Adam Vinatieri kicked a couple of long game-winning field goals and I remember Derek Anderson fumbling the ball, returned for a touchdown to give the Colts a 10-6 win). The 23-0 win over the Titans was possibly their most impressive win, but that came with a short-handed team.

Despite all that and the fact that they're going to Qualcomm (totally undeserved home advantage, just like Arizona's), Indy looks like they've pulled things together well enough. They've been frustrating to watch (considering how in previous years they could dismantle teams) but they've performed in the playoffs and I think they can do it again in San Diego in spite of a late-season resurgence and an MVP-caliber season from Phillip Rivers.

Pick: Indianapolis

Dolphins-Ravens: I think the toughest pick for me out of all the wildcard playoffs. Both teams have very steady offences who can gain solid yardage on drives but don't quite have the explosive players. Because of this, this game is probably going to be a case of field position and about who makes the big plays.

The Ravens have a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach, but playoff experience is hardly something that'll trouble Ray Lewis and the Ravens D. All they need to do is play like they have all season: their defence gets the stops, pound the line with run and once in a while allow Joe Flacco to step back and throw something deep to keep the defence honest.

As for the Dolphins, I don't think they have the superiority on either side of the ball. Their offence will need to really step up to contain Baltimore's nasty blitzing game and their defence will probably have to stop the Ravens run if they're going to have a chance to win. The Ravens won their matchup this season pretty easily: I don't think it'll be too different this time around even with Miami having won 9 of their last 10.

Pick: Baltimore

Eagles-Vikings: The winner of this matchup probably depends on which Eagles team turns up.

They could be the listless, offensively inept team who tied with the Bengals and were smashed by the Ravens midway through the season, led by a quarterback who couldn't help turn the ball over.

They could be the backs-to-the-wall, heart team who posted three strong wins against the Cardinals, the Giants and the Browns on MNF, pulling them back into the wildcard equation.

Or they could simply be the solid outfit, the team who beat the crap out of my Cowboys last week: they weren't brilliant, but they made the big plays and waited for Dallas to implode (which as it turned out, they did spectacularly). I think if either of the latter two teams play, the Eagles will win in Minneapolis. That's a good bet to make coming off a 44-6 win, which is why I'm picking them.

The Vikings have had a great season. I think they're a little like Baltimore, only with a little less defence and a few more wideout options. Adrian Peterson was brilliant once more and was probably closer to Peyton Manning MVP-wise than what the voters thought, but I'm still doubting Tarvaris Jackson on the back of his past performances. In the end, I think Philadelphia will win.

Pick: Philadelphia


So there they are, my four picks. Arizona has moved further ahead after Anquan Boldin caught a pass and beat his marker down the sideline for a 72-yard touchdown reception. They're leading 14-3 now.